Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
